I am going to be debating Peter Beinart, editor of the New Republic next week. I want to argue that the main problem in the election was NOT the liberal base. Rather the problem was John Kerry. I want to demonstrate this by quoting polls which showed Kerry Voters saying they voted for Kerry more because they opposed Bush than they supported Kerry. Please let me know if these polls exist - Chuck Munson at KC Indy media said that 70% of Kerry voters opposed Bush more than they supported Kerry. Can anyone give me a source or another poll.
Here are results from several polls that get at your question. The results share basic formatting and should be fairly self-explanatory. Please let me know, though, if anything is unclear. As you'll see, I am not providing you with whole surveys, but with individual questions/results from various polls. For each question, information is given as to who conducted the survey, when, how many were in the sample, etc. When you see 2 sets of results numbers for a question, I believe this is from 2 days of surveys. You'll see what I mean. I've separated each question by a line of asterisks ********
Please let me know if you find these useful.
Good luck, Michele
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What was the main reason you voted for Kerry?
Nov 23, 2004
did not want George Bush 25%
against the war in Iraq 23
personal characteristics 14
economy in poor shape 8
need a change 6
I always vote Democrat 6
like his social policies 4
Field Date - Nov 18-21, 2004
based on 164 registered voters
2004
Universe: State
Arizona
From: KAET-TV Channel 8
Arizona State University
P.O. Box 871405
Tempe, AZ 85287-1405
(480) 965-7051
Method: telephone
Notes: registered voters
Sample size: 372
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Is you vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?
Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll
Oct 19, 2004
total Kerry
voters
for Kerry 63% 50%
against Bush 31 44
don't know 6 6
Field Date - October 14-17, 2004
2004
Universe: State
New Jersey
From: The Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll
Eagleton Institute of Politics
185 Ryders Lane
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
(732) 932-9384
fax (732) 932-1551
Method: telephone
Notes: Registered voters. The survey includes 661 likely voters.
Sample size: 805
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(If you are voting for Kerry in the presidential election) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?
Quinnipiac University Poll - New Jersey
Oct 19, 2004
Kerry
voters
for Kerry 43%
against Bush 51
DK/NA 5
Field Date - October 14-17, 2004
Kerry voters = 46%
2004
Universe: State
New Jersey
From: Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
275 Mt. Carmel Avenue
Hamden, CT 06518
(203) 582-5201
fax (203) 582-8790
Method: telephone
Notes: Registered voters. The survey includes 1,123 likely voters.
Sample size: 1123
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Would you say that your choice is more a vote for John Kerry or more a vote against George W. Bush? Would you say that your choice is more a vote for George W. Bush or more a vote against John Kerry?
Pew Research Center
Sep 16, 2004
total Sep Sep
11-14 8-10
pro-Kerry 15% 16% 14%
anti-Bush 26 28 23
undecided 2 2 3
pro-Bush 38 35 40
anti-Kerry 9 8 10
undecided 2 3 2
other/ don't know 8 8 8
Field Date - Sep 8-14, 2004
based on 1972 registered voters
2004
Universe: United States
From: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
1150 18th Street, NW Suite 975
Washington, DC 20036
(202) 293-3126
fax (202) 293-2569
Method: telephone
Notes: 2003 interviewed September 8-13, 2004 and 2494 interviewed September 8-14, 2004
The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
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Would you say you are supporting Kerry for president more because you are for Kerry or more because you are against Bush?
National Annenberg Election Survey
Aug 6, 2004
total Repub- Democrat Indepen-
lican dent
more for Kerry 42% * 46% 32%
more against Bush 54 * 50 64
Field Date - July 30 - August 5, 2004
Asked of people who said they would vote for Kerry. * = too few cases to measure accurately.
2004
Universe: United States
From: National Annenberg Election Survey
The Annenberg Public Policy Center
320 National Press Building
Washington, DC 20045
(202) 879-6700
fax (202) 879-6707
Method: telephone
Notes: 1,997 adults were interviewed, of which 1887 were citizens and 1646 said they were registered voters.
Sample size: 1997
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ABC News
Conducted 10/1-3/04; surveyed 1,807 adults, margin of error +/-2%. Subsamples: 1,470 registered voters, margin of error +/-3%; 1,169 likely voters, margin of error +/-3% (release, 10/5). A response of * indicates less than 0.5 percent.
(Asked of likely voters) Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about Bush/Kerry -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic or not at all enthusiastic?
Bush supporters:
Very enthusiastic 57%
Fairly enthusiastic 37
Not too 4
Not at all 1
No opinion *
Kerry supporters:
Very enthusiastic 50%
Fairly enthusiastic 42
Not too 8
Not at all *
No opinion 1
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CBS NEWS
Conducted 10/9-11/04; surveyed 1,183 adults; margin of error +/-3% (release, 10/12). Subsamples: 1,023 registered voters; margin of error +/-3%. 760 likely voters; margin of error +/-4%.
(Asked of Kerry supporters) Would you describe your support for John Kerry as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?
Strongly favor 49%
Like but with reservations 26
Dislike other candidates 23
Don't know 2
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GALLUP
Conducted 9/13-15/04; surveyed 1,022 adults; margin of error +/-3% (release, 9/20).
(Asked of Kerry voters) What would you say are the most important one or two reasons why you would be voting for John Kerry? (open-ended)
RVs All
Want/need change/Get Bush out of office/
Dissatisfied with Bush 18% 18%
War issues/Stance on terrorism/
National security 13 13
Favor his agenda/Ideas/Platforms/Goals 13 12
Economic issues 11 11
Favor the Democratic Party 11 11
Dislike Bush/Poor character 9 10
Health care 8 8
Leadership quality/Better candidate
for the job 8 8
Like Kerry/Good character 7 6
Foreign policy/Improved international stance 6 6
Honesty/Integrity/Ethics 6 6
Jobs/Unemployment 5 5
Military experience 4 4
More favorable of middle class 2 2
Education 1 1
Tax issues 1 1
Providing for the elderly 1 1
Doing good job/Satisfied with
job performance 1 1
Abortion 1 1
Good moral values/Religious beliefs * *
Other 12 11
None 1 2
All * *
No opinion 2 4
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GREENBERG QUINLAN ROSNER RESEARCH (D)
Conducted 11/2-3/04 for Democracy Corps (D); surveyed 2,000 voters; margin of error +/-2.2% (release, 11/10). A response of * indicates less than 0.5 percent.
(Asked of respondents who voted for or considered voting for Kerry) Now, something different about your choice for president. Let me read you a list of reasons to (vote/consider voting) for John Kerry. Which three best describe the issues and qualities that led you to (vote/consider voting) for him?
Health care 26%
Change/New direction 25
Tax cuts for middle 25
The Iraq war 25
Improve intl relations 23
Outsourcing/Jobs 18
Women's Rights/Abortion 17
Soc. Security/Drugs 16
Federal budget deficit 14
Stem-cell research 14
For the middle class 14
Education 13
Military background/
Security issues 10
Independence from Middle
East oil 8
He's not George Bush 3
Like him 1
Did well in debates 1
A good candidate 1
Democrat 1
No reasons to be for him 2
Other issues 3
Don't know/Refused 1